Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2008-09-19
Number: 08-089/1
Author-Name: Joep Sonnemans
Author-Email: J.H.Sonnemans@uva.nl
Author-Workplace-Name: CREED, Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam
Author-Name: Frans van Dijk
Author-Email: F.van.Dijk@rechtspraak.nl
Author-Workplace-Name: Council for the Judiciary, The Hague, the Netherlands
Title: Errors in Judicial Decisions
Abstract: In criminal cases the task of the judge is to transform the uncertainty about the facts into the certainty of the verdict. In this experiment we examine the relationship between evidence of which the strength is known, subjective probability of guilt and verdict for abstract cases. We look at two situations: (1) all evidence is given and (2) evidence can be acquired. Roughly half of the participants do not base their decision on a subjective belief of the probability of guilt. The others underestimate in general the probability of guilt, but this is more than compensated by a tendency to convict at too low probability of guilt. In the situation where evidence can be acquired, participants do not acquire enough evidence.
Classification-JEL: C91, D81, K4
Keywords: Decision under uncertainty, judicial decisions, experiment
File-Url: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/08089.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 424113 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20080089