Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2013-11-25
Number: 13-188/II
Author-Name: Maurice Koster
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Amsterdam
Author-Name: Sascha Kurz
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bayreuth, Germany
Author-Name: Ines Lindner
Author-Workplace-Name: VU University Amsterdam
Author-Name: Stefan Napel
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bayreuth, Germany
Title: The Prediction Value
Abstract: We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations of v(S) when i cooperates or not. We characterize the prediction value as a special member of the class of (extended) values which satisfy anonymity, linearity and a consistency property. Every n-player binomial semivalue coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions over coalitions. The PV can thus be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues – including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value – can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.
Classification-JEL: C71, D71, D72
Keywords: influence, voting games, cooperative games, Banzhaf value, Shapley value
File-Url: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/13188.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 278205 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130188