Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers Creation-Date: 2017-11-03 Number: 17-104/VIII Author-Name: Hassan Benchekroun Author-Email: hassan.benchekroun@mcgill.ca Author-Workplace-Name: McGill University, CIREQ Author-Name: Gerard (G.C.) van der Meijden Author-Email: g.c.vander.meijden@vu.nl Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands Author-Name: Cees Withagen Author-Email: c.a.a.m.withagen@vu.nl Author-Workplace-Name: IPAG Business School (Paris), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute Title: OPEC, Shale Oil, and Global Warming - On the importance of the order of extraction Abstract: We show that OPEC's market power contributes to global warming by enabling producers of relatively expensive and dirty oil to start producing before OPEC reserves are depleted. We fully characterize the equilibrium of a cartel-fringe model and use a calibration to examine the importance of this extraction sequence effect. While welfare under the cartel-fringe equilibrium can be significantly lower than under a first-best outcome, almost all of this welfare loss is due to the sequence effect. Moreover, the recent boom in shale oil reserves may reduce social welfare and renewables subsidies can increase the carbon content of current extraction. Classification-JEL: Q31, Q42, Q54, Q58 Keywords: cartel-fringe, climate policy, non-renewable resource, Herfindahl rule, limit pricing File-Url: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/17104.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 1021949 bytes Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170104