Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2024-05-10
Number: 24-031/V
Author-Name: Jan C. van Ours
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Title: Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries
Abstract: The phenomenon of non-transitivity in outcomes, typically observed in non-effort games with predetermined probabilities and immediate clarity, extends to team- based, time-consuming games requiring effort that unfold over a long period of time. This study explores this aspect through an empirical analysis of professional football matches in the Netherlands involving three prominent teams: Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results reveal a non- transitive pattern over more than three decades, indicating that Feyenoord is more likely to triumph over PSV, PSV over Ajax, and Ajax over Feyenoord than the reverse scenarios.
Classification-JEL: C25, D01, Z2
Keywords: Non-transitive match outcomes, football, bookmakers, Elo-rating
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/24031.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 954.066 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240031