Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2025-02-28
Number: 25-015/V
Author-Name: Jan van Ours
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute
Title: Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly
Abstract: While sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data, straightforward betting procedures, and the finite duration of events. As a result, they are often analyzed for market efficiency and serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 24 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent non-transitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency, they prioritize consistency.
Classification-JEL: C25, D01, Z2
Keywords:
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/25015.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 2.927.255 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250015