Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2025-09-26
Number: 25-056/III
Author-Name: Yannick van Etten
Author-Workplace-Name: Tinbergen Institute
Author-Name: Jan Magnus
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 
Author-Name: Tetsuya Matsubayashi
Author-Workplace-Name: The University of Osaka
Title: Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands
Abstract: We study the possible increase of partisan polarization in the Netherlands over the period 1998--2023, in particular its relationship with the degree of urbanization, the so-called urban-rural divide. Using national election results at the municipal level and municipal characteristics, we show that urban-rural polarization has indeed increased. A novel aspect of our paper is the introduction of shocks as possible explanatory variables. The effect of a shock on polarization depends on the type of shock. An exterior shock tends to increase cohesion and lower polarization, but an interior shock leads to less cohesion and more polarization.
Classification-JEL: C52, D72, D74, D83, Z13
Keywords: urban-rural divide, elections, shocks, geographic polarization, regional resentment
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/25056.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 425.017 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250056