Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2026-03-20
Number: 26-012/I
Author-Name: Aurélien Baillon
Author-Workplace-Name: emlyon Business School
Author-Name: Joseph Capuno
Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines Diliman
Author-Name: Aleli Kraft 
Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines Diliman
Author-Name: Jenny Kudymowa
Author-Workplace-Name: Rethink Priorities
Author-Name: Owen O'Donnell
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Title: Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines
Abstract: We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too
little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation
of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular
disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval (10%, 85%] are 3 percentage
points (60%) less likely to have a check-up before baseline if they exhibit inverse-
S distortion. A random lottery offer conditional on going for a check-up (CVD
screening) increases the probability by 47 points overall. Estimates of compliance
and lottery-induced CVD preventive care are larger (not significantly) for inverse-
S (but also S) types perceiving intermediate risk.
Classification-JEL: D81, D91, I12
Keywords: Prospect Theory, Probability Weighting, Behavioral Incentive, Lottery, Self-selection
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26012.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 8.372.838 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260012