Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2026-06-29
Number: 26-042/V
Author-Name: Dmitrii Shchetinin
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Author-Name: Stanislav Avdeev
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Amsterdam  
Title: The Impact of International Conflict on Cross-Border Commercial Dispute Resolution
Abstract: International trade depends on the expectation that courts will protect commercial interests when disputes arise. With the growing number of international conflicts, it is crucial to know whether this expectation is met in practice. We examine the effect of the 2014 annexation of Crimea on the enforcement rate of foreign decisions by Russian and Ukrainian judges. We assemble novel data on the entire universe of Russian and Ukrainian court decisions concerning the enforcement of foreign decisions resolving cross-border commercial disputes. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the enforcement rate of Ukrainian (Russian) decisions in Russia (Ukraine) fell by 26% (33%) after the annexation. We show that courts increasingly justified refusals through discretionary legal grounds and undue-notification claims. Our findings provide the first causal evidence that international conflict affects both judicial decision-making and compliance with commercial treaties.
Classification-JEL: D74, F14, F51, F53, K33
Keywords: Arbitration, Armed conflict, Cross-border commerce, Extrajudicial factors, International commercial disputes, Transnational litigation
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26042.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 957.365 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260042