Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2026-07-10
Number: 26-043/VIII
Author-Name: Erik Ansink
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Author-Name: Jens Gudmundsson
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Copenhagen
Author-Name: Harold Houba
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Title: Flow Variability and Data Sharing in Transboundary River Treaties
Abstract: Treaties on transboundary river sharing often include provisions for sharing hydrologic data, yet such sharing is often limited where hydrologic variability is high. We study this puzzle in a model where treaty obligations must be conditioned on a noisy but verifiable public signal of inflows, and improving its accuracy is costly. We find that greater variability reduces the value of signal accuracy under concave benefits. When investments in accuracy are part of a negotiated treaty, the effect of variability on negotiated signal accuracy can be non-monotonic. Using treaty-text codings matched to basin-level variability measures, we provide descriptive evidence that basins with more variable river flow tend to feature weaker data-sharing provisions. The findings highlight a constraint on treaty design: when treaties can condition only on noisy but verifiable information, higher variability need not lead to stronger data sharing.
Classification-JEL: C73, D74, F53, Q25
Keywords: river sharing, data sharing, flow variability, transboundary rivers, information asymmetry, moral hazard
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26043.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 499.382 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260043