Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
Creation-Date: 2026-08-28
Revision-Date: 2026-09-03
Number: 26-062/I
Author-Name: Duarte Gonçalves
Author-Workplace-Name: University College London
Author-Name: Terri Kneeland
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Calgary
Author-Name: Andreas G. B. Ziegler
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 
Title: Off-Path Beliefs
Abstract: The off path plays a key role in theoretical models of strategic interaction, yet, empirically, little is known about choices and beliefs off path. Using a novel experimental paradigm where off-path behaviour is well identified and mistakes are rare, we document three findings. First, participants overestimate mistake probabilities and overreact to payoff differences. Second, although off-path moves strongly predict subsequent deviations, participants underinfer from them when forming beliefs about later choices. Third, underinference is strongest among participants assigning low probability to off-path moves. They are perfection believers: following an off-path move, they continue ruling out subsequent deviations.
Classification-JEL: C72, C92, D83, D91
Keywords: 
File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26062.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 1.300.739 bytes
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260062