Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers Creation-Date: 2026-09-20 Number: 26-071/VII Author-Name: Jaap Roelen Author-Workplace-Name: University of Amsterdam Author-Name: Martijn Ketelaars Author-Workplace-Name: Tilburg University Author-Name: Peter Kort Author-Workplace-Name: Tilburg University Title: A Subsidization Dilemma: the Effect of Shadow Cost of Public Funds and Consumer Distribution Abstract: This article studies subsidy competition in a two-country-two-firm model incorporating bilateral trade, consumer distribution, and a shadow cost of public funds. Governments choose subsidies to maximize domestic or international welfare, with cooperation defined by subsidy choices maximizing international welfare. Under equal consumer bases, the subsidy game is a prisoner's dilemma if and only if the shadow cost is positive. This creates an opportunity for cooperation; without cooperation, however, governments oversubsidize their firms. We find that incentives to cooperate increase with the shadow cost. However, sufficiently unequal consumer distributions can eliminate the prisoner's dilemma, removing the larger country's incentive to cooperate. Classification-JEL: D43, F12, H20 Keywords: Bilateral Trade, International Duopoly, Prisoner's Dilemma, Shadow Cost of Public Funds, Subsidy File-URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26071.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 965.838 bytes Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260071